The mobile and PC markets are grappling with ongoing challenges, as growth expectations for NAND vendors and OEM customers continue to fall short. This has led to ongoing inventory adjustments and potential production cuts at NAND fabs. After a sharp decline in prices followed by a rapid rebound, storage vendors now find themselves in a familiar scramble to secure revenue wherever possible. Adding to the complexity is the potential cooling of the "AI bubble," as companies that rushed to invest in advanced technologies and build out enterprise storage for on-premises data centers may face diminishing returns. The pace of funding and expansion in these areas is unlikely to follow a linear trajectory, further clouding the outlook. Compounding these challenges, major data center operators are now reassessing their near-term growth projections for solid-state storage. In this volatile environment, the key question remains: how will vendors weather the storm and find sustainable growth across increasingly uncertain markets?

Updated Storage (HDD and SSD) Market Outlook

2024年のHDD市場は、昨年振るわなかったNLドライブの回復が著しく、出荷台数・金額ともに対前年比でプラス成長となる見込みである。一方で、急速な生産フォーキャストの増大により一部部材にタイト感が出ているほか、ドライブの生産キャパシティの拡大を余儀なくされている。またSSDについでは、従来の需要に加えてAIサーバー向けが好調であることから、Enterprise SSDが市場をけん引している。本プレゼンテーションではHDDおよびSSDの足元の状況把握および2025年を展望するものである。

The past two years have been the craziest times we have seen in a number of years. Not since 2016 did we see such fluctuation and volatility in the NAND storage market, however, the recent declines in pricing and then subsequent increases are much more extreme that we have previously seen. Different products being developed, and vastly different market segments who are taking these products continue to be at odds with each other. While the HDD market and its legacy technologies help SSDs find continued success for both SATA and SAS SSDs in various market segments, PCIe SSDs continues to be the wild west. Whether you are talking about a specific market segment or region, opinions, and subsequent product types, differ greatly.

Updated Storage (HDD and SSD) Market Outlook

HDD市場は昨年までの長いトンネルを抜け、ようやく回復期に入った。ここでの成長エンジンはNLドライブであり、この数か月でもHAMR関連の発表が相次ぐなど注目を浴びている。 また各ドライブベンダーの生産フォーキャストは米系を中心に断続的な上方修正が見られ、長期間に及ぶ生産調整フェーズから脱したことをうかがわせる。 本プレゼンテーションはNLの今後の動向を中心に、各ドライブベンダーの開発動向からHDD市場の中長期的展望まで幅広く見通すものである。

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Updated Storage (HDD and SSD) Market Outlook

2023年のHDD市場は、2年連続でNL需要が落ち込んだことで台数・金額はおろか出荷容量までがマイナス成長となった。 一方のSSD市場においても、急速な価格下落が各ベンダーの利益を圧迫するなど、ストレージ製品は非常に厳しい市場環境に置かれていた。 それでも昨年末以降DC向けのストレージ需要に回復の兆しが見え、NAND価格も上昇に転じたことから、2024年のストレージ市場には光が戻りつつある。 本セミナーでは2024年のHDD/SSD市場はもちろん、中長期的な見通しにも触れながら、今後のストレージ市場の方向性を明らかにする。

HDD Demand Set for Recovery While the Future Promises Many Challenges and Opportunities

After suffering historic declines following unprecedented volatility triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, many in the HDD market are questioning if, when, and why the industry will experience brighter days ahead. This presentation seeks to highlight the potential of a solid recovery over the next couple of years is supported by more than just hope. However, over the next five years, the industry will also be challenged to drive HDD capacity growth as technology roadmaps between suppliers diverge and re-converge in the future. Customers are seeking a stable and diverse supply base while the industry itself tries to temper volatility to limit the risks of the significant technology transition investments that lie ahead.